Showing posts with label Facebook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Facebook. Show all posts

Saturday, 2 August 2014

In search of a social site that doesn't lie

Facebook and OKCupid experiment on users. So what's wrong with that?

Rudder's post described a few of the experiments that the dating website had carried out. In one, OKCupid told people that they would be good matches with certain other people even though the site's algorithms had determined that they would be bad matches. That's right: The company deliberately lied to its users. OKCupid wanted to see if people liked each other because they have the capacity to make up their own minds about who they like, or if they like each other because OKCupid tells them they should like each other.

(The controversial post was Rudder's first in several years; he had taken time off to write a book about experimenting on people. Due out next month, the book is called Dataclysm: Who We Are (When We Think No One's Looking).)

The OKCupid post was in part a response to controversy over a recently discovered Facebook experiment, the results of which were published in an academic journal. Facebook wanted to see if people would post more negative posts if their own News Feeds had more negative posts from their friends. In the experiment, Facebook removed some posts by family and friends because they were positive. The experiment involved deliberately making people sadder by censoring friends' more uplifting and positive posts.

Don't like this kind of manipulation? Here's Rudder's response: "Guess what, everybody: if you use the Internet, you're the subject of hundreds of experiments at any given time, on every site.

That's how websites work."


What's wrong here

Rudder's "everyone is doing it" rationalization for experimenting on users makes it clear that he doesn't understand the difference between what OKCupid and Facebook are doing, and what other sites that conduct A/B tests of different options are doing.

The difference is that OKCupid and Facebook are potentially changing, damaging or affecting the real relationships of real people. They are manipulating the happiness of people on purpose.

These companies might argue that this damage to the mood and relationships of people is small to the point of being inconsequential. But what makes them think it's OK to deliberately do any damage at all?

The other glaring problem with these social science experiments is that the subjects don't know they're participating.

Yes, I'm sure company lawyers can argue in court that the Terms of Service that everyone agreed to (but almost nobody read) gives OKCupid and Facebook the right to do everything they do. And I'm sure the sites believe that they're working so hard and investing so much to provide free services that users owe them big time, and that makes it all OK.

Imagine a splash screen that pops up each month on these sites that says: "Hi. Just wanted to make sure you're aware that we do experiments on people, and we might do experiments on you. We might lie to you, meddle in your relationships and make you feel bad, just to see what you'll do."

No, you can't imagine it. The reason is that the business models of sites like OKCupid and Facebook are based on the assumption of user ignorance.
Why OKCupid and Facebook think it's OK to mess with people's relationships

The OKCupid admission and the revelations about the Facebook research were shocking to the public because we weren't aware of the evolving mindset behind social websites. No doubt the OKCupid people and the Facebook people arrived at their coldly cynical view of users as lab rats via a long, evolutionary slippery slope.

Let's imagine the process with Facebook. Zuckerberg drops out of Harvard, moves to Silicon Valley, gets funded and starts building Facebook into a social network. Zuck and the guys want to make Facebook super appealing, but they notice a disconnect in human reason, a bias that is leading heavy Facebook users to be unhappy.

You see, people want to follow and share and post a lot, and Facebook wants users to be active. But when everybody posts a lot, the incoming streams are overwhelming, and that makes Facebook users unhappy. What to do?

The solution is to use software algorithms to selectively choose which posts to let through and which to hold back. But what criteria do you use?

Facebook's current algorithm, which is no longer called Edgerank (I guess if you get rid of the name, people won't talk about it), is the product of thousands of social experiments -- testing and tweaking and checking and refining until everyone is happy.

The result of those experiments is that Facebook changes your relationships. For example, let's say you follow 20 friends from high school. You feel confident that by following them -- and by them following you -- that you have a reliable social connection to these people that replaces phone calls, emails and other forms of communication.

Let's say you have a good friend named Brian who doesn't post a lot of personal stuff. And you have another friend, Sophia, who is someone you don't care about but who is very active and posts funny stuff every day. After a period of several months during which you barely interact with Brian but occasionally like and comment on Sophia's posts, Facebook decides to cut Brian's posts out of your News Feed while maintaining the steady stream of Sophia posts. Facebook boldly ends your relationship with Brian, someone you care about. When Brian posts an emotional item about the birth of his child, you don't see it because Facebook has eliminated your connection to Brian.

And don't get me started on OKCupid's algorithms and how they could affect the outcome of people's lives.

Not only do both companies experiment all the time; their experiments make huge changes to users' relationships.

The real danger with these experiments
You might think that the real problem is that social networks that lie to people, manipulate their relationships and regularly perform experiments on their users are succeeding. For example, when Facebook issued its financial report last month, it said revenue rose 61% to $2.91 billion, up from $1.81 billion in the same quarter a year ago. The company's stock soared after the report came out.

Twitter, which is currently a straightforward, honest, nonmanipulative social network, has apparently seen the error of its ways and is seriously considering the Facebook path to financial success. Twitter CEO Dick Costolo said in an interview this week that he "wouldn't rule out any kind of experiment we might be running there around algorithmically curated experiences or otherwise."

No, the real problem is that OKCupid and Facebook may take action based on the results of their research. In both cases, the companies say they're experimenting in order to improve their service.

In the case of OKCupid, the company found that connecting people who are incompatible ends up working out better than it thought. So based on that result, in the future it may match up more people it has identified as incompatible.

In the case of Facebook, it did find that mood is contagious. So maybe it will "improve" Facebook in the future to build in a bias for positive, happy posts in order to make users happier with Facebook than they are with networks that don't filter based on positivity.

What's the solution?

While Twitter may follow Facebook down the rabbit hole of user manipulation, there is a category of "social network" where what you see is what you get -- namely, messaging apps.

When you send a message via, say, WhatsApp or Snapchat or any of the dozens of new apps that have emerged recently, the other person gets it. WhatsApp and Snapchat don't have algorithms that choose to not deliver most of your messages. They don't try to make you happy or sad or connect you with incompatible people to see what happens. They just deliver your communication.

I suspect that's one of the reasons younger users are increasingly embracing these alternatives to the big social networks. They're straightforward and honest and do what they appear to do, rather than manipulating everything behind the scenes.

Still, I'd love to see at least one major social site embrace honesty and respect for users as a core principle. That would mean no lying to users, no doing experiments on them without their clear knowledge, and delivering by default all of the posts of the people they follow.

In other words, I'd love to see the founders of social sites write blog posts that brag: "We DON'T experiment on human beings."

Wouldn't that be nice?

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Saturday, 1 March 2014

Twitter Suffering From Growing Pains (and Facebook Comparisons)

Twitter faces growing pressure to attract new users and dramatically increase engagement on the platform. Can it ever rival the numbers and growth of Facebook?

Twitter's honeymoon as a publicly traded company could be coming to an end. With growth stalling and timeline views on the decline for the first time ever, Twitter finds itself at a crossroads.

Twitter Suffers from Growing Pains
While its quest for more ad revenue continues unabated, the company faces even greater pressure to attract new users and dramatically increase engagement on the platform.

"Twitter has seen its sequential MAU growth rate decelerate sharply after hitting 50 million, raising concerns that its quirkier nature might cap its potential audience in the U.S. at a ceiling well below that of Facebook."
-- Seth Shafer, SNL Kagan

"We as a company aren't going to be satisfied -- I am not going to be satisfied -- until we reach every connected person on the planet, period," CEO Dick Costolo said at last week's Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference.

The challenge ahead for Twitter coupled with Costolo's grandiose goal puts the company in a predicament unlike any it has confronted before. It also fans the unfortunate, yet inevitable comparison to Facebook. While Twitter ended 2013 with an average monthly active user (MAU) base of 241 million, Facebook surpassed 1.23 billion. For every user that engages on Twitter, at least five are actively using Facebook.

"Twitter needs to do something to grow to the size of Facebook but the jury is still out if there's a clear path for Twitter or any other company to do that, or if Facebook is a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly that was in the right place at the right time," says Seth Shafer, associate analyst at SNL Kagan.

Costolo hasn't helped matters by failing to meet previous internal estimates for growth either. Early last year the executive reportedly told employees that he expected to reach 400 million MAUs by the end of 2013. Failing to double its active user base last year, Twitter reported a 30 percent increase in its stead.

"Twitter's overall MAU growth is still pretty healthy, but it's all coming internationally where users monetize at a much lower rate. U.S. growth has slowed significantly at about 50 million MAUs," says Shafer.

Facebook blew past 50 million U.S. MAUs without blinking and moreover, its sequential increases didn't dip into the single digits until it surpassed about 120 million users in the U.S., according to SNL Kagan data.

"Twitter, however, has seen its own sequential MAU growth rate decelerate sharply after hitting 50 million MAUs, raising concerns that its quirkier nature and niche focus might cap its potential audience in the United States at a ceiling well below that of Facebook," Shafer adds.

Twitter's 'Road Map' for Growth
Nonetheless, Twitter's lead executive says he is optimistic about rising user growth. While the company is being careful not to make specific promises or announcements about how it will improve on these points, Costolo has frequently referenced a road map of late that lays out a strategy for achieving better growth over the course of the year.

Pointing to field research and internal data on how users engage with the platform, he hints at a series of new features and design changes that are expected to drive new user growth. Twitter's vault of data and newfound capability to experiment with multiple beta tests simultaneously has "informed a very specific road map for the kinds of capabilities we want to introduce to the product that we believe will drive user growth," says Costolo.

He is quick to point out, however, that no single product feature or change to the platform will lead to a "quantum leap change in growth." Instead it will be an accumulation of numerous tweaks throughout the year that give him confidence. "You're going to be seeing a significant amount of experimentation of different ideas we have," he says.

While dispelling concerns about lagging growth in the recently closed quarter, Costolo says there was no specific event or trend during the quarter that meaningfully impacts how the company thinks about user growth. Indeed, improvements made during the finals months of 2013, particularly in messaging and discovery, have already paid off. Favorites and retweets rose 35 percent from the previous quarter and direct messages jumped 25 percent over the same period, according to Twitter.

"I'm starting to see those interactions do what we hoped they would do," he says. "It's more about pushing the content forward and pushing back the scaffolding of Twitter."

The company also hopes to attract new users by simplifying its on-boarding process and dramatically reducing the 11 steps a new account currently requires.

Under the Shadow of Facebook
Twitter has successfully maneuvered through its fair share of challenges before. Be it the fail whale sightings and power struggles of its early days or the feverish hunt for ad revenue of late, the company has found its way.

But now with its first complete quarter as a public company in the rear view, the demands for growth from investors will only get louder with each passing quarter. Twitter will have to deliver some big numbers in 2014 to keep Wall Street happy, but Costolo's comments also suggest that much of that success will depend on a clear differentiation between Twitter's role in the world and that of Facebook.

"Twitter is this indispensable companion to life in the moment," Costolo says. "If you think about it as a product, I think that misses the impact and the reach of what we really believe is a content, communications and data platform."

By that distinction, the opportunities afforded to Twitter are "enormous," says Costolo. "We believe we are the only platform where you get an understanding of wide reach in the moment while it's happening."

Tapping into big data and personalization could help, but it won't move the needle far enough for Twitter to reach the scale of Facebook, says Shafer of SNL Kagan.

Emerging from under the shadow of Facebook will be a struggle for Twitter unless it makes dramatic changes to the service or goes on an acquisition binge aimed at cobbling something larger together, he adds. And even that would be a challenge because of course, "we already have a pretty big thing like that called Facebook," Shafer says.

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Friday, 11 October 2013

Infographic: Facebook vs. Twitter 2010 user stats

Another day, another pretty infographic. This one breaks down the demographic differences between Facebook and Twitter.
Facebook and Twitter are the big boys in the social networking space. So big, in fact, that we’ve probably written about them a bit too much in 2010. But hey, why stop in December? This breakdown was put together by Digital Surgeons and shows demographic statistics (and a few fun facts) for both sites. You may know that Facebook is much larger with 500 million users compared to Twitter’s 106 million, but did you know that 52 percent of Tweeters update their status every day while only 12 percent of Facebook users do the same? How about the fact that half of Twitter’s users are in college compared to only 28 percent of Facebook users. It shows just how much Facebook has changed since its days as a university-only social network. Enjoy.


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